Imparare a rischiare. Come prendere decisioni giuste

I was in favor of Kahneman & Tversky ecole, a branch of bounded rationality called "cognitive biases and heuristics" until I read this book. Now I am noticed that there is another point of view called "fast and frugal heuristics", led by Gerd Gigerenzer. This book partially explains this approach, w Leggi tutto

I live in Japan and work for a global company. At every 6 months or so I would receive a notice from both the company and the ward office of where I live in, calling for breast cancer free check up that are held on regular basis. I never go for it, feeling that the earlier I find out about anything l Leggi tutto

H. G. Wells once predicted that “statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for effective citizenship as the ability to read and write.” Many decades later, we are as clueless about risk as ever—and at a heavy price. Ignorance about risk lies behind innumerable contemporary problems, from the Leggi tutto

There are numbers of good books about risk, and I would like to place Gigerenzer's "Risk Savvy" into this category. Need to admit, I wasn't at all interested in it when it appeared in the bookshelves. I was thinking I wouldn't have time for yet another book on Risk, but when I heard that he argues a Leggi tutto

الكتاب الأهم الذي يتحدث عن الإحصاء وشرح أهميته بشكل مبسط وتوضيح المخاطرة وعلاقتها بالاحتمالات والإحصاء وعلاقتها بكل ما هو حولها ويتحدث عن اهمية الاحتمالات في حياتنا اليومية والمالية وحتي عندما يتعلق الموضوع بالأمور الصحية فماذا تعني احتمالات هطول الأمطار؟ ماذا تعني نسبة الخطأ في العملية أو التحاليل الطب Leggi tutto

Risk Savvy is an unusual but helpful tome on risk assessment in a modern world. Gigerenzer skewers several topics, pretty broadly from terrorism, to cancer screening all linked with an overall focus on making accurate, useful and evidence based decisions. At the moment I have a slightly cynical pers Leggi tutto

Eye opener . It addresses risk vs uncertainty , and how often we mistakingly think that risk is unceratinity and uncertainty is risk. It advocates use of rules of thumb or simple ones instead of the sophistaced systems of risk management. We need educating people in health, financial, and digital ris Leggi tutto