Il cigno nero. Come l'improbabile governa la nostra vita
Acquistalo
In Libreria
Sinossi
Cosa pensarono gli europei quando, giunti in Australia, videro dei cigni neri dopo aver creduto per secoli, supportati dall'evidenza, che tutti i cigni fossero bianchi? Un singolo evento è sufficiente a invalidare un convincimento frutto di un'esperienza millenaria. Ci ripetono che il futuro è prevedibile e i rischi controllabili, ma la storia non striscia, salta. I cigni neri sono eventi rari, di grandissimo impatto e prevedibili solo a posteriori, come l'invenzione della ruota, l'11 settembre, il crollo di Wall Street e il successo di Google. Sono all'origine di quasi ogni cosa, e spesso sono causati ed esasperati proprio dal loro essere imprevisti. Se il rischio di un attentato con voli di linea fosse stato concepibile il 10 settembre, le Torri Gemelle sarebbero ancora al loro posto. Se i modelli matematici fossero applicabili agli investimenti, non assisteremmo alle crisi degli hedge funds. Questo libro è dedicato ai cigni neri: cosa sono, come affrontarli, in che modo traene beneficio.
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- Pagine: 0
- Data di uscita: 26-03-2014
Recensioni
This is a book that raises a number of very important questions, but chief among them is definitely the question of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience? This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronically insecure, u Leggi tutto
This is a great book. And, to take a page from Taleb, anyone who doesn't think so is wrong. No, no, there are a number of problems with the book. A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the bo Leggi tutto
I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens. Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions. The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think. The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most p Leggi tutto
I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying.
This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is. I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it. There, I did it. Now Leggi tutto
If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book. It will reaffirm what you already know. To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or 6... Leggi tutto
This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented. Taleb a classic science denier; oscillating between anti-science and pseudo-intellectual arguments. When some scientist says something he likes, he misrepresents it to fit his narrative. When the scientific consensus is against him, he cries gr Leggi tutto
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